Cela fait 21 ans que le Tennessee a terminé dans le top cinq de l’AP. cela a presque Cela faisait aussi longtemps que les Vols n’avaient pas battu l’Alabama, mais la victoire palpitante de samedi 52-49 à Knoxville permet aux fans de l’UT de rêver à nouveau en grand. Les statistiques avancées, quant à elles, confirment les rêves.
Dans le classement SP + de cette semaine, les Vols sont passés au cinquième rang. S’ils y finissaient, ce serait leur meilleur classement depuis 1999. S’agissant d’un classement prédictif et non d’une mesure de CV, ils sont toujours derrière Bama au général (même si l’écart se réduit rapidement). Mais étant donné qu’ils ont maintenant au moins 71% de probabilité de victoire dans cinq de leurs six derniers matchs de saison régulière, les chances d’une saison énorme – la première saison à 10 victoires depuis 2007 ? première saison à 11 victoires depuis 2001 ? première saison de 12 victoires depuis 1998 ? — ne font qu’augmenter.
Vous trouverez ci-dessous le classement SP + de cette semaine. Qu’est-ce que SP+ ? En une seule phrase, c’est une mesure ajustée au tempo et à l’adversaire de l’efficacité du football universitaire. J’ai créé le système chez Football Outsiders en 2008, et au fur et à mesure que mon expérience avec le football universitaire et ses statistiques a augmenté, j’ai apporté quelques modifications au système.
SP+ se veut en effet prédictif et orienté vers l’avant. Ce n’est pas un classement de curriculum vitae qui donne du crédit aux grandes victoires ou à une planification particulièrement courageuse – aucun bon système prédictif ne l’est. Il s’agit simplement d’une mesure des aspects les plus durables et les plus prévisibles du football. Si vous êtes chanceux ou peu impressionnant dans une victoire, votre note échouera probablement. Si vous êtes fort et malchanceux dans une défaite, il augmentera probablement.
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