Selon un nouveau rapport de JPMorgan, de bons moments s’annoncent pour le portefeuille assiégé 60/40. La société prévoit un rendement annuel de 7,2 % pour le portefeuille composé à 60 % d’actions et à 40 % d’obligations au cours des 10 à 15 prochaines années, en hausse par rapport à ses 4,3 % prévus l’an dernier. “La douloureuse chute des marchés boursiers et obligataires en 2022 n’est peut-être pas encore terminée, mais à plus long terme, nous voyons les turbulences de cette année créer les opportunités d’investissement les plus attrayantes que nous ayons vues depuis une décennie”, a déclaré John Bilton, responsable de JPMorgan Asset Management. stratégie mondiale multi-actifs, a déclaré dans un communiqué. La stratégie 60/40, connue sous le nom de portefeuille équilibré, a connu une année terrible au milieu de la chute des prix des obligations et de la volatilité des marchés boursiers. Une mesure de la performance du portefeuille est l’ETF iShares Core Growth Allocation, qui a une allocation cible fixe de 60/40. L’ETF est en baisse de plus de 15% cette année, à la clôture de vendredi. À court terme, les investisseurs seront aux prises avec une récession ou au moins plusieurs trimestres de croissance inférieure à la tendance, a déclaré Bilton dans le rapport 2023 de JPMorgan sur les hypothèses de marché des allocations de capital à long terme. Alors que l’inflation est toujours aussi forte, la firme s’attend à ce qu’elle diminue au cours des deux prochaines années pour atteindre 2,6 %. Alors que les taux directeurs se normalisent, les obligations ne ressemblent plus à des “perdants en série”, a écrit Bilton. Les rendements projetés des actions augmenteront fortement, a-t-il déclaré. “Les marges reculeront probablement par rapport aux niveaux d’aujourd’hui mais ne reviendront pas complètement à leur moyenne à long terme, et les valorisations présentent un point d’entrée attrayant”, a déclaré Bilton. “Nous rappelons à ceux qui ont subi des pertes de l’année dernière que les investisseurs capables d’éviter de vendre pendant les baisses ont tendance à être récompensés à plus long terme, et que les gains les plus importants sont souvent encaissés au début du cycle, lorsque les marchés se retournent pour la première fois.”
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