Les taux hypothécaires ont de nouveau chuté cette semaine, après avoir plongé de près d’un demi-point de pourcentage la semaine dernière.
Selon Freddie Mac, l’hypothèque à taux fixe sur 30 ans était en moyenne de 6,58 % au cours de la semaine se terminant le 23 novembre, contre 6,61 % la semaine précédente. Il y a un an, le taux fixe sur 30 ans était de 3,10 %.
Les taux hypothécaires ont augmenté pendant la majeure partie de 2022, stimulés par la campagne sans précédent de hausse des taux d’intérêt de la Réserve fédérale afin de maîtriser la flambée de l’inflation. Mais la semaine dernière, les taux ont chuté au milieu de rapports indiquant que l’inflation pourrait enfin avoir atteint son apogée.
“Cette volatilité rend difficile pour les acheteurs potentiels de savoir quand entrer sur le marché, et cela se reflète dans les dernières données qui montrent un ralentissement des ventes de maisons existantes à tous les niveaux de prix”, a déclaré Sam Khater, économiste en chef de Freddie Mac.
Le taux hypothécaire moyen est basé sur les demandes de prêt hypothécaire que Freddie Mac reçoit de milliers de prêteurs à travers le pays. L’enquête n’inclut que les emprunteurs qui ont mis 20% de mise de fonds et qui ont un excellent crédit. Mais de nombreux acheteurs qui mettent moins d’argent à l’avance ou qui ont un crédit moins que parfait paieront plus que le taux moyen.
Les taux hebdomadaires moyens, généralement publiés par Freddie Mac jeudi, sont publiés un jour plus tôt en raison des vacances de Thanksgiving.
Les taux hypothécaires ont tendance à suivre le rendement des bons du Trésor américain à 10 ans. Lorsque les investisseurs voient ou anticipent des hausses de taux, ils prennent des mesures qui font augmenter les rendements et les taux hypothécaires.
Le Trésor à 10 ans oscille dans une fourchette inférieure de 3,7 % à 3,85 % depuis qu’une paire de rapports sur l’inflation indiquant que les prix ont augmenté à un rythme plus lent que prévu en octobre ont été publiés il y a près de deux semaines. Cela a conduit à une grande remise à zéro des attentes des investisseurs concernant les futures hausses des taux d’intérêt, a déclaré Danielle Hale, économiste en chef de Realtor.com. Auparavant, le bon du Trésor à 10 ans avait dépassé 4,2 %.
Cependant, le marché pourrait être un peu trop rapide pour célébrer l’amélioration de l’inflation, a-t-elle déclaré.
Lors de la réunion de novembre de la Fed, le président Jerome Powell a souligné la nécessité de poursuivre les hausses de taux pour maîtriser l’inflation.
“Cela pourrait signifier que les taux hypothécaires pourraient à nouveau grimper, et ce risque augmentera si l’inflation du mois prochain est plus élevée”, a déclaré Hale.
Bien qu’il soit difficile de synchroniser le marché afin d’obtenir un taux hypothécaire bas, de nombreux acheteurs potentiels voient une fenêtre d’opportunité.
“Suite à des taux hypothécaires généralement plus élevés tout au long de 2022, le récent retournement en faveur des acheteurs est le bienvenu et pourrait faire économiser à l’acheteur d’une maison au prix médian plus de 100 $ par mois par rapport à ce qu’il aurait payé lorsque les taux étaient supérieurs à 7 % il y a à peine deux semaines », a déclaré Hale.
En raison de la baisse des taux hypothécaires, les demandes d’achat et de refinancement ont légèrement augmenté la semaine dernière. Mais l’activité de refinancement est toujours inférieure de plus de 80% au rythme de l’année dernière lorsque les taux étaient d’environ 3%, selon le rapport hebdomadaire de la Mortgage Bankers Association.
Cependant, avec des fluctuations hebdomadaires des taux hypothécaires représentant en moyenne près de trois fois celles observées au cours d’une année typique et des prix des maisons toujours historiquement élevés, de nombreux acheteurs potentiels ont reculé, a déclaré Hale.
“Une pénurie de logements à long terme maintient les prix des maisons à un niveau élevé, même si le nombre de maisons à vendre sur le marché a augmenté, et les acheteurs et les vendeurs peuvent trouver plus difficile d’aligner les attentes sur les prix”, a-t-elle déclaré.
Dans un rapport séparé publié mercredi, le Département américain du logement et du développement urbain et le US Census Bureau ont rapporté que les ventes de maisons neuves avaient bondi en octobre, augmentant de 7,5 % par rapport à septembre, mais en baisse de 5,8 % par rapport à il y a un an.
Bien que cela ait été plus élevé que prévu et ait résisté à une tendance à la baisse récente des ventes, il est encore inférieur il y a un an. La construction de logements est historiquement faible depuis une décennie et les constructeurs ont reculé alors que le marché du logement montre des signes de ralentissement.
“Les ventes de maisons neuves ont dépassé les attentes, mais un renversement de la tendance générale à la baisse est douteux pour l’instant étant donné les taux hypothécaires élevés et le pessimisme des constructeurs”, a déclaré Robert Frick, économiste d’entreprise à la Navy Federal Credit Union.
Malgré une tendance générale à la baisse des ventes, les prix des maisons neuves restent à des niveaux record.
Le prix médian d’une maison nouvellement construite était de 493 000 $, en hausse de 15 % par rapport à il y a un an – le prix le plus élevé jamais enregistré.
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